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John is a senior consultant at Media House International (MHI) and the views of the column are John McLellan’s and not that of MHI.
By John McLellan, Published 20th Aug 2024
The decision by four candidates to call for a halt to the contest could backfire.
Public and private sector jobs under threat because of the SNP’s inability to live within its means. Council Tax to “let rip”. Nationalists tearing themselves apart over Gaza. Meanwhile, Labour is set to launch wide-ranging tax raids to target pensioners and pillage North Sea oil and gas. We do not live in happy times, despite the UK outpacing every other major economy this year.
The Starmer-Reeves and Swinney-Robison pairings are suitably grim messengers for grim messages, so opportunity should be knocking for a focussed and determined opposition. Instead, Scottish Conservatives spent the weekend dismayed as their leadership contest descended to a bitter squabble.
The process to replace Douglas Ross started reasonably well, and this time last week it seemed they all agreed on a few basics: it must be a battle of ideas relevant to the wider public, a strong right-of-centre alternative to the left-wing consensus based on low tax, smaller government and personal responsibility. It should not be about party structures, which could be addressed after the contest, but above all, there must be no blue-on-blue attacks on personalities or groups.
This was welcome, because some candidates’ unhappiness has been simmering for some time, some longer than others, but the Daily Telegraph revelation about Douglas Ross’s attempt last year to persuade Moray West Westminster candidate Kathleen Robertson to make way for him and his preference for a successor was current front-runner Russell Findlay MSP, provoked a furious public reaction from four rivals which will be hard to repair.
I say squabble, but that requires two squabblers when the fury has been one-sided, with the Gang of Four contenders – MSPs Murdo Fraser, Liam Kerr, Brian Whittle and Jamie Greene –calling into question the transparency and fairness of the contest and demanding a halt while their concerns were addressed. A sympathetic commentator, Herald columnist Andy McIver – who once claimed not to be “the least bit interested in Conservative opinion” − went further by alleging some sort of Tory “Mafioso” dirty tricks campaign to guarantee a Findlay victory.
So, who’s in this shadowy, self-serving, string-pulling Mafia? Is it Ruth Davidson, the most successful leader of the devolution era? Her old chief whip and Borders MP John Lamont or former Scotland Secretary David Mundell MP, both probably the most successful constituency campaigners in the UK Conservative party, never mind Scotland? Former party director Mark McInnes, a school friend of John Lamont and widely regarded as an expert political strategist who masterminded the 2017 Scottish election successes? They are not Corleones but winners.
And then there is Douglas Ross himself, London flatmate of John Lamont, who had become increasingly distanced from his MSP group and is now isolated after snatching the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East candidacy when the Scottish management board correctly decided the hospitalised incumbent David Duguid was unfit to stand. Last week’s revelation about Moray West triggered the Gang of Four’s statement, quickly followed by the resignation of deputy leader and sixth candidate Meghan Gallagher. Yet Douglas Ross’s Moray West conversation was widely known in the parliamentary party, so if it was news to the five candidates, they were either out the loop or not listening.
Maybe the story was leaked to spark the confrontation, and if so why? Firstly, Murdo Fraser’s hopes were dented by a leak to The Times of private messages from supporter Stephen Kerr MSP, who described his campaign as “awful” and said he was “beginning to wish” he’d nominated Meghan Gallagher. But there was also a feeling among other candidates that the need for 100 member nominations was designed to make it difficult to stand and barriers were being put in their way. The alternative conspiracy theory is the four rebels hoped to generate enough second preferences for Murdo Fraser so he would win on transfers even if Russell Findlay was ahead on first preferences, but it wouldn’t work if they weren’t on the ballot paper.
I’m told Murdo Fraser already has 100 nominees, so there will be a contest, so any failure of other hopefuls to find enough support before nominations close this Thursday is almost certainly down to insufficient effort to get round the associations to drum up support. In Edinburgh, there have already been three events for UK leadership candidates − Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverley and, last night, Tom Tugendhat − but only one from a Scottish candidate. And yes, it was Russell Findlay. Mr Findlay has used his extensive media contacts to place a string of articles, but so too have other candidates, notably Murdo Fraser who will be on this page tomorrow. It appears simply to be jealous candidates irked because a better-organised rival is putting in the yards. And if a candidate wasn’t ruthless or determined enough to get a campaign team moving once the General Election was out the way, or to cross the country in search of backers, what kind of leader would they make?
One senior figure put it to me this way: “There really aren’t any shortcuts if you want to be successful. They’ve had the entire summer to meet members, hold events, generate momentum to put themselves into contention, but none of them have done that. They need to earn members’ votes, not snipe in the newspapers.” Somewhat more succinctly, “vindictive, damaging, and self-indulgent,” said another. “Lazy,” said a third.
The membership dislikes disloyalty and having gone public with the incendiary call to halt the contest, rather than raise concerns privately, the Gang of Four has given them a reason to rally round the candidate who stuck to the script. Another senior Edinburgh figure who was undecided has now nominated Russell Findlay and won’t be the only one. Crying foul publicly has only strengthened Mr Findlay’s position, and they have opened a gap which will be hard to bridge, as if nothing was learnt from the bitterness which made Ruth Davidson’s early leadership years so difficult. It’s the end of the road for Douglas Ross, and it might be for the Gang of Four too.
